1
49%
Home Win
2.05
X
23%
Draw
4.38
2
28%
Away Win
3.53
xG Home
1.83
xG Away
1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS
62%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives FC Lugano an expected 1.8 goals and FC Luzern an expected 1.3 goals. FC Lugano have a 49% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and FC Luzern at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 61%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.3%
2:1
9.4%
1:0
7.7%
2:0
7%
1:2
6.9%
2:2
6.3%
3:1
5.7%
0:1
5.6%
3:0
4.3%
0:0
4.2%
3:2
3.9%
0:2
3.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | FC Lugano Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 49% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.04 |
| Market Odds | 2.17 |
Team Comparison
| FC Lugano | FC Luzern | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 7 |
| 54 | Points | 39 |
| 47% | Win % | 32% |
| 1.53 | Avg Goals Scored | 2 |
| 1.19 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.81 |
Venue Form
FC Lugano at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
FC Luzern Away
W0
D1
L0
(1 games)
Recent Form
FC Lugano
W
D
FC Luzern
D
