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Famalicao vs Arouca — Prediction

Famalicao Famalicao
1 – 0
Most likely score (model)
Fri, 06 Nov 2026 · Primeira Liga
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats
Arouca Arouca

Match information

Scheduled
Kickoff
6 Nov 2026, 20:45 UTC
Competition
Primeira Liga
Previous matches

All competitions; results strictly before this fixture. The recorded score may include extra time; shootout goals are not added.

Famalicao
  • SC Braga 3–0 Famalicao
  • Rio Ave FC 0–4 Famalicao
  • Nacional 0–4 Famalicao
  • Famalicao 1–1 Sporting CP
  • Estrela da Amadora 2–2 Famalicao
Arouca
  • Arouca 1–0 Nacional
  • Alverca 0–1 Arouca
  • Sporting CP 2–2 Arouca
  • Arouca 0–2 Santa Clara
  • Estoril 0–0 Arouca
Model & data

Table-based model estimate

Matches in saved table: Famalicao 34 · Arouca 34. Data saved: 2026-11-05 01:30 UTC.

Table season: 2025

This Poisson estimate uses goals scored and conceded per game in the saved league table. Home advantage is 1.08; goal rates are limited to 0.3–5.0.

Model goal expectation is not measured shot-based xG. Injuries, confirmed lineups and live match state are not inputs to this calculation.

Assessment recorded before kickoff: Famalicao 40% · 2026-11-05 01:10 UTC.

An estimate is not a guarantee of the result.

Lineups, events, odds and statistics depend on provider coverage. Missing data is not a zero value.

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

Model goal expectation · 1 1.87
Model goal expectation · 2 0.81
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
BTTS 47%

Table-based model estimate

Model goal expectation: Famalicao 1.87 · Arouca 0.81.
1 62% · X 22% · 2 16%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:0 12.8%
2:0 11.9%
1:1 10.4%
2:1 9.7%
3:0 7.5%
0:0 6.8%
3:1 6.1%
0:1 5.5%
1:2 4.2%
2:2 4%
4:0 3.5%
4:1 2.8%

About this assessment

Model outcome Famalicao Win
Probability 62%
Predicted Odds 1.61

Team Comparison

Famalicao Arouca
5 League Position 8
56 Points 42
44% Win % 35%
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
0.85 Avg Goals Conceded 1.88

Venue Form

Famalicao at Home
W0 D1 L0 (1 games)
0% win rate
Arouca Away
W1 D2 L0 (3 games)
33% win rate

Recent Form

Famalicao
L W W D D
Arouca
W W D L D