1
4%
Home Win
22.83
X
16%
Draw
6.15
2
79%
Away Win
1.26
xG Home
0.30
xG Away
2.06
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS
23%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives ES Tunis an expected 0.3 goals and Chelsea an expected 2.1 goals. ES Tunis have a 4% win probability, draw stands at 16%, and Chelsea at 79%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–2. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:2
20%
0:1
19.5%
0:3
13.7%
0:0
9.5%
0:4
7.1%
1:2
6%
1:1
5.8%
1:3
4.1%
1:0
2.8%
1:4
2.1%
2:2
0.9%
2:1
0.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | ES Tunis Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 35% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.86 |
| Market Odds | 3.04 |
Team Comparison
| ES Tunis | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 2 |
| 3 | Points | 6 |
| 33% | Win % | 67% |
| 0.33 | Avg Goals Scored | 2 |
| 1.67 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1 |