England vs Croatia Prediction

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2 – 0
Most Likely Score
Wed, 17 Jun 2026 · World Cup
1 75%
Home Win 1.33
X 16%
Draw 6.36
2 9%
Away Win 11.44
xG Home 2.41
xG Away 0.69
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
BTTS 45%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives England an expected 2.4 goals and Croatia an expected 0.7 goals. England have a 75% win probability, draw stands at 16%, and Croatia at 9%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 60%.

Correct Score Predictions

2:0 13.1%
1:0 10.9%
3:0 10.5%
2:1 9%
1:1 7.5%
3:1 7.3%
4:0 6.3%
0:0 4.5%
4:1 4.4%
2:2 3.1%
0:1 3.1%
1:2 2.6%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick England Win
Probability 45%
Predicted Odds 2.22
Market Odds 2.36

Team Comparison

England Croatia
1 League Position 2
7 Points 6
67% Win % 67%
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1.67

Head to Head

13 Jun 2021 Euro Championship
England 1 : 0 Croatia
W
18 Nov 2018 UEFA Nations League
England 2 : 1 Croatia
W
12 Oct 2018 UEFA Nations League
Croatia 0 : 0 England
D