1
16%
Home Win
6.22
X
33%
Draw
3.04
2
51%
Away Win
1.96
xG Home
0.48
xG Away
1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
21%
BTTS
26%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives England an expected 0.5 goals and Argentina an expected 1.1 goals. England have a 16% win probability, draw stands at 33%, and Argentina at 51%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 79%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
22.6%
0:0
20.5%
0:2
12.5%
1:1
10.9%
1:0
9.9%
1:2
6%
0:3
4.6%
2:1
2.6%
2:0
2.4%
1:3
2.2%
2:2
1.4%
0:4
1.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Argentina Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| England | Argentina | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 1 |
| 7 | Points | 9 |
| 67% | Win % | 100% |
| 2 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.67 |
| 0.67 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.33 |