1
67%
Home Win
1.5
X
26%
Draw
3.87
2
7%
Away Win
13.42
xG Home
1.45
xG Away
0.30
Over 2.5 Goals
26%
BTTS
20%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Ecuador an expected 1.4 goals and Curaçao an expected 0.3 goals. Ecuador have a 67% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Curaçao at 7%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 74%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
25.2%
2:0
18.2%
0:0
17.4%
3:0
8.8%
1:1
7.6%
2:1
5.5%
0:1
5.2%
4:0
3.2%
3:1
2.6%
1:2
1.1%
4:1
1%
2:2
0.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Ecuador Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 33% |
| Predicted Odds | 3.03 |
| Market Odds | 3.22 |
Team Comparison
| Ecuador | Curaçao | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 4 |
| 4 | Points | 1 |
| 33% | Win % | 0% |
| 0.67 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.33 |
| 0.67 | Avg Goals Conceded | 3 |