1
44%
Home Win
2.27
X
25%
Draw
3.92
2
30%
Away Win
3.29
xG Home
1.50
xG Away
1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS
54%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Derby an expected 1.5 goals and Lincoln an expected 1.2 goals. Derby have a 44% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Lincoln at 30%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.1%
1:0
10.1%
2:1
9.1%
0:1
8.1%
2:0
7.6%
1:2
7.3%
0:0
6.7%
2:2
5.4%
0:2
4.8%
3:1
4.5%
3:0
3.8%
1:3
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Derby Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 50% |
| Predicted Odds | 2 |
| Market Odds | 2.13 |
Head to Head
Lincoln
0 : 0
Derby
D
Derby
3 : 1
Lincoln
L
Derby
2 : 0
Lincoln
L
