1
43%
Home Win
2.34
X
28%
Draw
3.54
2
29%
Away Win
3.45
xG Home
1.27
xG Away
0.99
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS
45%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Cruzeiro an expected 1.3 goals and Mirassol an expected 1.0 goals. Cruzeiro have a 43% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Mirassol at 29%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 61%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
13.2%
1:1
13.1%
0:0
10.4%
0:1
10.3%
2:0
8.4%
2:1
8.3%
1:2
6.5%
0:2
5.1%
2:2
4.1%
3:0
3.6%
3:1
3.5%
1:3
2.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Cruzeiro Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 43% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.33 |
| Market Odds | 2.47 |
Team Comparison
| Cruzeiro | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 4 |
| 70 | Points | 67 |
| 50% | Win % | 47% |
| 1.45 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.66 |
| 0.82 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.03 |
Venue Form
Cruzeiro at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Mirassol Away
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Cruzeiro
L
W
Mirassol
L
W
