1
48%
Home Win
2.09
X
29%
Draw
3.44
2
23%
Away Win
4.33
xG Home
1.27
xG Away
0.79
Over 2.5 Goals
34%
BTTS
39%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Cruzeiro an expected 1.3 goals and Fluminense an expected 0.8 goals. Cruzeiro have a 48% win probability, draw stands at 29%, and Fluminense at 23%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 66%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
16.2%
1:1
12.8%
0:0
12.8%
2:0
10.3%
0:1
10%
2:1
8.1%
1:2
5%
3:0
4.4%
0:2
4%
3:1
3.4%
2:2
3.2%
4:0
1.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Cruzeiro Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Cruzeiro | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 5 |
| 70 | Points | 64 |
| 50% | Win % | 50% |
| 1.45 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.32 |
| 0.82 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.03 |
Venue Form
Cruzeiro at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Fluminense Away
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Cruzeiro
L
W
Fluminense
L
W
Head to Head
Cruzeiro
0 : 0
Fluminense
D
Fluminense
0 : 2
Cruzeiro
W
Fluminense
1 : 0
Cruzeiro
L