1
26%
Home Win
3.78
X
29%
Draw
3.42
2
44%
Away Win
2.26
xG Home
0.88
xG Away
1.23
Over 2.5 Goals
35%
BTTS
41%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Cruzeiro an expected 0.9 goals and Flamengo an expected 1.2 goals. Cruzeiro have a 26% win probability, draw stands at 29%, and Flamengo at 44%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 65%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
14.9%
1:1
13.1%
0:0
12.1%
1:0
10.7%
0:2
9.2%
1:2
8.1%
2:1
5.8%
2:0
4.7%
0:3
3.8%
2:2
3.5%
1:3
3.3%
3:1
1.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Flamengo Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 44% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.27 |
| Market Odds | 2.42 |
Team Comparison
| Cruzeiro | Flamengo | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 1 |
| 70 | Points | 79 |
| 50% | Win % | 61% |
| 1.45 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.05 |
| 0.82 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.71 |
Venue Form
Cruzeiro at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Flamengo Away
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Cruzeiro
L
W
Flamengo
D
W
W