1
44%
Home Win
2.29
X
29%
Draw
3.45
2
27%
Away Win
3.67
xG Home
1.24
xG Away
0.91
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS
43%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Cruzeiro an expected 1.2 goals and Botafogo an expected 0.9 goals. Cruzeiro have a 44% win probability, draw stands at 29%, and Botafogo at 27%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 64%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
14.4%
1:1
13.2%
0:0
11.6%
0:1
10.6%
2:0
8.9%
2:1
8.1%
1:2
6%
0:2
4.9%
2:2
3.7%
3:0
3.7%
3:1
3.4%
1:3
1.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Cruzeiro Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Cruzeiro | Botafogo | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 6 |
| 70 | Points | 63 |
| 50% | Win % | 45% |
| 1.45 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.53 |
| 0.82 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1 |
Venue Form
Cruzeiro at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Botafogo Away
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Cruzeiro
L
W
Botafogo
D
W
L
Head to Head
Botafogo
4 : 0
Cruzeiro
L
Cruzeiro
2 : 2
Botafogo
D
Botafogo
0 : 2
Cruzeiro
W
