1
41%
Home Win
2.45
X
27%
Draw
3.75
2
33%
Away Win
3.07
xG Home
1.35
xG Away
1.18
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS
51%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Cruz Azul an expected 1.4 goals and Toluca an expected 1.2 goals. Cruz Azul have a 41% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Toluca at 33%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 54%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.7%
1:0
10.8%
0:1
9.4%
2:1
8.6%
0:0
7.9%
1:2
7.5%
2:0
7.3%
0:2
5.5%
2:2
5.1%
3:1
3.9%
3:0
3.3%
1:3
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Cruz Azul Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 41% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.44 |
| Market Odds | 2.59 |
Team Comparison
| Cruz Azul | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 5 |
| 33 | Points | 30 |
| 53% | Win % | 47% |
| 1.82 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.65 |
| 1.06 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.94 |
Venue Form
Cruz Azul at Home
W4
D3
L0
(7 games)
Toluca Away
W2
D0
L3
(5 games)
Recent Form
Cruz Azul
W
W
D
D
W
Toluca
W
W
L
L
L
