1
40%
Home Win
2.49
X
28%
Draw
3.56
2
32%
Away Win
3.15
xG Home
1.24
xG Away
1.07
Over 2.5 Goals
41%
BTTS
47%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Corinthians an expected 1.2 goals and Santos an expected 1.1 goals. Corinthians have a 40% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Santos at 32%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.2%
1:0
12.2%
0:1
10.6%
0:0
9.8%
2:1
8.2%
2:0
7.6%
1:2
7.1%
0:2
5.7%
2:2
4.4%
3:1
3.4%
3:0
3.2%
1:3
2.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Corinthians Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 40% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.5 |
| Market Odds | 2.66 |
Team Comparison
| Corinthians | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | League Position | 12 |
| 47 | Points | 47 |
| 32% | Win % | 32% |
| 1.11 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.18 |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Corinthians at Home
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Santos Away
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Corinthians
W
W
D
Santos
D
D
W
