1
30%
Home Win
3.36
X
29%
Draw
3.43
2
41%
Away Win
2.44
xG Home
0.97
xG Away
1.19
Over 2.5 Goals
37%
BTTS
43%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Corinthians an expected 1.0 goals and Fluminense an expected 1.2 goals. Corinthians have a 30% win probability, draw stands at 29%, and Fluminense at 41%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 63%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
13.7%
1:1
13.3%
0:0
11.5%
1:0
11.1%
0:2
8.2%
1:2
7.9%
2:1
6.5%
2:0
5.4%
2:2
3.9%
0:3
3.3%
1:3
3.2%
3:1
2.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Fluminense Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 41% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.44 |
| Market Odds | 2.59 |
Team Comparison
| Corinthians | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | League Position | 5 |
| 47 | Points | 64 |
| 32% | Win % | 50% |
| 1.11 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.32 |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.03 |
Venue Form
Corinthians at Home
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Fluminense Away
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Corinthians
W
W
D
Fluminense
L
W
