1
22%
Home Win
4.56
X
29%
Draw
3.5
2
49%
Away Win
2.02
xG Home
0.77
xG Away
1.31
Over 2.5 Goals
35%
BTTS
39%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Corinthians an expected 0.8 goals and Cruzeiro an expected 1.3 goals. Corinthians have a 22% win probability, draw stands at 29%, and Cruzeiro at 49%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 65%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
16.3%
1:1
12.6%
0:0
12.4%
0:2
10.7%
1:0
9.6%
1:2
8.3%
2:1
4.9%
0:3
4.7%
2:0
3.7%
1:3
3.6%
2:2
3.2%
0:4
1.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Cruzeiro Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 49% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.04 |
| Market Odds | 2.17 |
Team Comparison
| Corinthians | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | League Position | 3 |
| 47 | Points | 70 |
| 32% | Win % | 50% |
| 1.11 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.45 |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.82 |
Venue Form
Corinthians at Home
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Cruzeiro Away
W4
D0
L0
(4 games)
Recent Form
Corinthians
W
W
D
Cruzeiro
W
W
W
W
