1
19%
Home Win
5.17
X
55%
Draw
1.83
2
26%
Away Win
3.83
xG Home
0.32
xG Away
0.41
Over 2.5 Goals
4%
BTTS
9%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Colombia an expected 0.3 goals and Portugal an expected 0.4 goals. Colombia have a 19% win probability, draw stands at 55%, and Portugal at 26%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 96%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:0
48%
0:1
19.8%
1:0
15.4%
1:1
6.4%
0:2
4.1%
2:0
2.5%
1:2
1.3%
2:1
1%
0:3
0.6%
3:0
0.3%
2:2
0.2%
1:3
0.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Colombia Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 35% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.86 |
| Market Odds | 3.04 |
Team Comparison
| Colombia | Portugal | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 2 |
| 7 | Points | 5 |
| 67% | Win % | 33% |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Scored | 2 |
| 0.33 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.33 |