1
44%
Home Win
2.27
X
25%
Draw
3.92
2
30%
Away Win
3.29
xG Home
1.50
xG Away
1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS
54%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Chelsea an expected 1.5 goals and Manchester City an expected 1.2 goals. Chelsea have a 44% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Manchester City at 30%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.1%
1:0
10.1%
2:1
9.1%
0:1
8.1%
2:0
7.6%
1:2
7.3%
0:0
6.7%
2:2
5.4%
0:2
4.8%
3:1
4.5%
3:0
3.8%
1:3
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Chelsea Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 44% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.27 |
| Market Odds | 2.42 |
Head to Head
Chelsea
0 : 0
Manchester City
D
Chelsea
0 : 3
Manchester City
L
Manchester City
1 : 1
Chelsea
D