1
57%
Home Win
1.77
X
24%
Draw
4.21
2
20%
Away Win
5.07
xG Home
1.72
xG Away
0.91
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS
49%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Botafogo an expected 1.7 goals and Gremio an expected 0.9 goals. Botafogo have a 57% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Gremio at 20%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
12.4%
1:1
11.3%
2:0
10.7%
2:1
9.7%
0:0
7.2%
0:1
6.6%
3:0
6.1%
3:1
5.6%
1:2
5.1%
2:2
4.4%
0:2
3%
4:0
2.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Botafogo Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Botafogo | Gremio | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | League Position | 9 |
| 63 | Points | 49 |
| 45% | Win % | 34% |
| 1.53 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.24 |
| 1 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Botafogo at Home
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Gremio Away
W0
D1
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Botafogo
L
D
Gremio
L
D
L
Head to Head
Gremio
5 : 3
Botafogo
L
Botafogo
3 : 2
Gremio
L
Gremio
1 : 1
Botafogo
D
