1
68%
Home Win
1.47
X
19%
Draw
5.28
2
13%
Away Win
7.68
xG Home
2.16
xG Away
0.82
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS
50%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Benfica an expected 2.2 goals and Chelsea an expected 0.8 goals. Benfica have a 68% win probability, draw stands at 19%, and Chelsea at 13%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 57%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
11.8%
1:0
10.9%
2:1
9.7%
1:1
9%
3:0
8.5%
3:1
7%
0:0
5.1%
4:0
4.6%
0:1
4.2%
2:2
4%
4:1
3.8%
1:2
3.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Benfica Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Benfica | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 2 |
| 7 | Points | 6 |
| 67% | Win % | 67% |
| 3 | Avg Goals Scored | 2 |
| 0.67 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1 |
Head to Head
Chelsea
2 : 1
Benfica
L
Benfica
0 : 1
Chelsea
L