1
49%
Home Win
2.04
X
23%
Draw
4.3
2
28%
Away Win
3.6
xG Home
1.78
xG Away
1.29
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS
60%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Bahia an expected 1.8 goals and Vasco DA Gama an expected 1.3 goals. Bahia have a 49% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Vasco DA Gama at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.7%
2:1
9.5%
1:0
8.3%
2:0
7.4%
1:2
6.9%
2:2
6.1%
0:1
6%
3:1
5.6%
0:0
4.7%
3:0
4.4%
0:2
3.9%
3:2
3.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Bahia Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 49% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.04 |
| Market Odds | 2.17 |
Team Comparison
| Bahia | Vasco DA Gama | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | League Position | 14 |
| 60 | Points | 45 |
| 45% | Win % | 34% |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.45 |
| 1.21 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.58 |
Venue Form
Bahia at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Vasco DA Gama Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Bahia
W
L
D
Vasco DA Gama
D
L
