1
27%
Home Win
3.76
X
28%
Draw
3.51
2
45%
Away Win
2.23
xG Home
0.92
xG Away
1.29
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS
43%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Bahia an expected 0.9 goals and Cruzeiro an expected 1.3 goals. Bahia have a 27% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Cruzeiro at 45%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 62%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
14.2%
1:1
13%
0:0
11%
1:0
10.1%
0:2
9.1%
1:2
8.4%
2:1
6%
2:0
4.7%
0:3
3.9%
2:2
3.8%
1:3
3.6%
3:1
1.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Cruzeiro Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Bahia | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | League Position | 3 |
| 60 | Points | 70 |
| 45% | Win % | 50% |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.45 |
| 1.21 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.82 |
Venue Form
Bahia at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Cruzeiro Away
W3
D0
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Bahia
W
L
D
Cruzeiro
W
W
W
