1
50%
Home Win
2.02
X
28%
Draw
3.52
2
22%
Away Win
4.53
xG Home
1.33
xG Away
0.78
Over 2.5 Goals
35%
BTTS
40%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Atletico-MG an expected 1.3 goals and Vitoria an expected 0.8 goals. Atletico-MG have a 50% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Vitoria at 22%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 65%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
16.1%
1:1
12.6%
0:0
12.1%
2:0
10.7%
0:1
9.5%
2:1
8.4%
1:2
4.9%
3:0
4.7%
0:2
3.7%
3:1
3.7%
2:2
3.3%
4:0
1.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Atletico-MG Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 50% |
| Predicted Odds | 2 |
| Market Odds | 2.13 |
Team Comparison
| Atletico-MG | Vitoria | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | League Position | 15 |
| 48 | Points | 45 |
| 32% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.13 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.92 |
| 1.16 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.37 |
Venue Form
Atletico-MG at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Vitoria Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Atletico-MG
D
L
W
Vitoria
D
L
