1
42%
Home Win
2.41
X
28%
Draw
3.58
2
31%
Away Win
3.27
xG Home
1.27
xG Away
1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
41%
BTTS
47%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Atletico-MG an expected 1.3 goals and Gremio an expected 1.1 goals. Atletico-MG have a 42% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Gremio at 31%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.1%
1:0
12.5%
0:1
10.3%
0:0
9.8%
2:1
8.3%
2:0
7.9%
1:2
6.9%
0:2
5.4%
2:2
4.4%
3:1
3.5%
3:0
3.4%
1:3
2.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Atletico-MG Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 42% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.38 |
| Market Odds | 2.53 |
Team Comparison
| Atletico-MG | Gremio | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | League Position | 9 |
| 48 | Points | 49 |
| 32% | Win % | 34% |
| 1.13 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.24 |
| 1.16 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Atletico-MG at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Gremio Away
W0
D1
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Atletico-MG
D
L
W
Gremio
L
D
L
