1
37%
Home Win
2.69
X
28%
Draw
3.52
2
34%
Away Win
2.9
xG Home
1.17
xG Away
1.12
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS
46%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Atletico-MG an expected 1.2 goals and Bahia an expected 1.1 goals. Atletico-MG have a 37% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Bahia at 34%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.3%
1:0
11.9%
0:1
11.3%
0:0
10.1%
2:1
7.8%
1:2
7.4%
2:0
7%
0:2
6.3%
2:2
4.3%
3:1
3%
1:3
2.8%
3:0
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Atletico-MG Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 35% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.86 |
| Market Odds | 3.04 |
Team Comparison
| Atletico-MG | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | League Position | 7 |
| 48 | Points | 60 |
| 32% | Win % | 45% |
| 1.13 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.32 |
| 1.16 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
Atletico-MG at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Bahia Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Atletico-MG
D
L
W
Bahia
D
L
Head to Head
Atletico-MG
3 : 0
Bahia
L
Bahia
2 : 1
Atletico-MG
L
Bahia
3 : 0
Atletico-MG
L
