1
22%
Home Win
4.46
X
33%
Draw
2.99
2
44%
Away Win
2.27
xG Home
0.64
xG Away
1.03
Over 2.5 Goals
23%
BTTS
30%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Atletico Madrid an expected 0.6 goals and Botafogo an expected 1.0 goals. Atletico Madrid have a 22% win probability, draw stands at 33%, and Botafogo at 44%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 77%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
19.4%
0:0
18.8%
1:1
12.4%
1:0
12.1%
0:2
10%
1:2
6.4%
2:1
4%
2:0
3.9%
0:3
3.4%
1:3
2.2%
2:2
2%
0:4
0.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Botafogo Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Atletico Madrid | Botafogo | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 2 |
| 6 | Points | 6 |
| 67% | Win % | 67% |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Scored | 1 |
| 1.67 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.67 |