1
35%
Home Win
2.89
X
26%
Draw
3.85
2
39%
Away Win
2.54
xG Home
1.28
xG Away
1.39
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS
54%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Aarhus GF an expected 1.3 goals and FC Midtjylland an expected 1.4 goals. Aarhus GF have a 35% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and FC Midtjylland at 39%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 50%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.3%
0:1
9.6%
1:0
8.9%
1:2
8.5%
2:1
7.9%
0:0
6.9%
0:2
6.7%
2:0
5.7%
2:2
5.5%
1:3
3.9%
3:1
3.4%
0:3
3.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | FC Midtjylland Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 39% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.56 |
| Market Odds | 2.73 |
Team Comparison
| Aarhus GF | FC Midtjylland | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 2 |
| 50 | Points | 46 |
| 68% | Win % | 59% |
| 2.09 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.64 |
| 1.05 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.05 |
Venue Form
Aarhus GF at Home
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
FC Midtjylland Away
W2
D2
L0
(4 games)
Recent Form
Aarhus GF
W
D
D
FC Midtjylland
W
D
D
W
