What are "best picks" in football predictions?

Best picks are predictions where the Poisson model gives a confidence of 65% or higher. These are the strongest signals from our AI model and have historically outperformed lower-confidence picks.

How does the Poisson model calculate prediction confidence?

The VARiM Poisson model analyses historical goal-scoring rates for each team (home and away) to calculate the probability of each possible scoreline. The sum of all home-win scoreline probabilities gives the home-win probability, and so on.

What is a value bet in football?

A value bet occurs when bookmaker odds imply a lower probability than the model calculates. For example, if our model gives a 70% home-win probability but the bookmaker offers odds equivalent to 55%, that is a positive value bet.

How accurate are the VARiM football predictions?

Accuracy statistics are published on the VARiM accuracy tracker at varim.net/predictions/accuracy/. Best picks (≥65% confidence) have consistently shown higher accuracy than the overall prediction set.