1
20%
Home Win
4.95
X
28%
Draw
3.61
2
52%
Away Win
1.92
xG Home
0.75
xG Away
1.39
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS
40%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Villarreal an expected 0.7 goals and Napoli an expected 1.4 goals. Villarreal have a 20% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Napoli at 52%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 64%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
16.4%
1:1
12.3%
0:0
11.8%
0:2
11.4%
1:0
8.9%
1:2
8.5%
0:3
5.3%
2:1
4.6%
1:3
3.9%
2:0
3.3%
2:2
3.2%
0:4
1.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Napoli Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 52% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.92 |
| Market Odds | 2.05 |
Team Comparison
| Villarreal | Napoli | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | League Position | 30 |
| 1 | Points | 8 |
| 0% | Win % | 25% |
| 0.63 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.13 |
| 2.25 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.88 |
