USA vs Costa Rica Prediction

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USA USA
2 – 0
Most Likely Score
Sun, 29 Jun 2025 · CONCACAF Gold Cup
1 85%
Home Win 1.18
X 11%
Draw 9.02
2 4%
Away Win 25.64
xG Home 2.71
xG Away 0.44
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
BTTS 33%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives USA an expected 2.7 goals and Costa Rica an expected 0.4 goals. USA have a 85% win probability, draw stands at 11%, and Costa Rica at 4%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 61%.

Correct Score Predictions

2:0 15.8%
3:0 14.3%
1:0 11.7%
4:0 9.7%
2:1 6.9%
3:1 6.2%
1:1 5.1%
0:0 4.3%
4:1 4.2%
0:1 1.9%
2:2 1.5%
3:2 1.4%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick USA Win
Probability 45%
Predicted Odds 2.22
Market Odds 2.36

Team Comparison

USA Costa Rica
1 League Position 2
9 Points 7
100% Win % 67%
2.67 Avg Goals Scored 2
0.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33

Head to Head

23 Jan 2025 Friendlies
USA 3 : 0 Costa Rica
W
31 Mar 2022 World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF
Costa Rica 2 : 0 USA
L
13 Oct 2021 World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF
USA 2 : 1 Costa Rica
W