1
8%
Home Win
12.66
X
27%
Draw
3.67
2
65%
Away Win
1.54
xG Home
0.30
xG Away
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals
24%
BTTS
19%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Uruguay an expected 0.3 goals and Spain an expected 1.4 goals. Uruguay have a 8% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Spain at 65%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 76%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
25.7%
0:0
18.7%
0:2
17.7%
0:3
8.1%
1:1
7.7%
1:0
5.6%
1:2
5.3%
0:4
2.8%
1:3
2.4%
2:1
1.2%
1:4
0.8%
2:0
0.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Spain Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Uruguay | Spain | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 1 |
| 2 | Points | 7 |
| 0% | Win % | 67% |
| 1 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.67 |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0 |
Head to Head
Spain
2 : 1
Uruguay
L