1
44%
Home Win
2.28
X
29%
Draw
3.49
2
27%
Away Win
3.64
xG Home
1.26
xG Away
0.93
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS
43%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Uruguay an expected 1.3 goals and Spain an expected 0.9 goals. Uruguay have a 44% win probability, draw stands at 29%, and Spain at 27%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 62%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
14.1%
1:1
13.1%
0:0
11.2%
0:1
10.4%
2:0
8.9%
2:1
8.3%
1:2
6.1%
0:2
4.9%
2:2
3.9%
3:0
3.7%
3:1
3.5%
1:3
1.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Spain Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 50% |
| Predicted Odds | 2 |
| Market Odds | 2.13 |
Team Comparison
| Uruguay | Spain | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 1 |
| 0 | Points | 0 |
Head to Head
Spain
2 : 1
Uruguay
L
