1
73%
Home Win
1.37
X
19%
Draw
5.26
2
8%
Away Win
12.77
xG Home
1.96
xG Away
0.47
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS
32%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Uruguay an expected 2.0 goals and Brazil an expected 0.5 goals. Uruguay have a 73% win probability, draw stands at 19%, and Brazil at 8%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 56%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
17.4%
2:0
17%
3:0
11.1%
0:0
8.9%
1:1
8.1%
2:1
7.9%
4:0
5.4%
3:1
5.2%
0:1
4.1%
4:1
2.5%
1:2
1.9%
2:2
1.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Uruguay Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Uruguay | Brazil | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 2 |
| 9 | Points | 5 |
| 100% | Win % | 33% |
| 3 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.67 |
| 0.33 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.67 |
Head to Head
Uruguay
2 : 0
Brazil
W
Brazil
4 : 1
Uruguay
L
Uruguay
0 : 2
Brazil
L