1
48%
Home Win
2.07
X
23%
Draw
4.3
2
28%
Away Win
3.51
xG Home
1.77
xG Away
1.31
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS
61%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Turkey an expected 1.8 goals and Paraguay an expected 1.3 goals. Turkey have a 48% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Paraguay at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.6%
2:1
9.4%
1:0
8.1%
2:0
7.2%
1:2
7%
2:2
6.2%
0:1
6%
3:1
5.6%
0:0
4.6%
3:0
4.2%
0:2
3.9%
3:2
3.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Turkey Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 48% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.08 |
| Market Odds | 2.22 |
