1
45%
Home Win
2.2
X
42%
Draw
2.4
2
13%
Away Win
7.7
xG Home
0.80
xG Away
0.30
Over 2.5 Goals
10%
BTTS
14%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Spain an expected 0.8 goals and Belgium an expected 0.3 goals. Spain have a 45% win probability, draw stands at 42%, and Belgium at 13%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 90%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:0
33.2%
1:0
26.7%
2:0
10.7%
0:1
9.9%
1:1
8%
2:1
3.2%
3:0
2.9%
0:2
1.5%
1:2
1.2%
3:1
0.9%
4:0
0.6%
2:2
0.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Spain Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Spain | Belgium | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 1 |
| 7 | Points | 5 |
| 67% | Win % | 33% |
| 1.67 | Avg Goals Scored | 2 |
| 0 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.67 |
