Nigeria vs Mozambique Prediction

Live Match Centre & Lineups ›
3 – 1
Most Likely Score
Mon, 05 Jan 2026 · Africa Cup of Nations
1 80%
Home Win 1.24
X 10%
Draw 10.37
2 8%
Away Win 12.55
xG Home 3.97
xG Away 1.36
Over 2.5 Goals 88%
BTTS 71%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Nigeria an expected 4.0 goals and Mozambique an expected 1.4 goals. Nigeria have a 80% win probability, draw stands at 10%, and Mozambique at 8%. The most likely exact scoreline is 3–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 88%.

Correct Score Predictions

3:1 6.9%
4:1 6.8%
2:1 5.2%
3:0 5%
4:0 5%
3:2 4.7%
4:2 4.6%
2:0 3.8%
2:2 3.5%
1:1 2.6%
3:3 2.1%
4:3 2.1%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Nigeria Win
Probability 45%
Predicted Odds 2.22
Market Odds 2.36

Team Comparison

Nigeria Mozambique
1 League Position 3
9 Points 3
100% Win % 33%
2.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.67

Head to Head

16 Oct 2023 Friendlies
Mozambique 2 : 3 Nigeria
W
15 Jan 2014 African Nations Championship
Nigeria 4 : 2 Mozambique
W