1
48%
Home Win
2.06
X
28%
Draw
3.6
2
24%
Away Win
4.2
xG Home
1.36
xG Away
0.86
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS
43%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives New York City FC an expected 1.4 goals and Toronto FC an expected 0.9 goals. New York City FC have a 48% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Toronto FC at 24%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 62%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
14.7%
1:1
12.7%
0:0
10.8%
2:0
10%
0:1
9.3%
2:1
8.6%
1:2
5.5%
3:0
4.5%
0:2
4%
3:1
3.9%
2:2
3.7%
3:2
1.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | New York City FC Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 48% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.08 |
| Market Odds | 2.22 |
Team Comparison
| New York City FC | Toronto FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 12 |
| 56 | Points | 32 |
| 50% | Win % | 18% |
| 1.47 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.09 |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.29 |
Venue Form
New York City FC at Home
W0
D1
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
New York City FC
L
D
L