New York City FC vs Toronto FC Prediction

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1 – 0
Most Likely Score
Fri, 31 Jul 2026 · Major League Soccer
1 48%
Home Win 2.06
X 28%
Draw 3.6
2 24%
Away Win 4.2
xG Home 1.36
xG Away 0.86
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
BTTS 43%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives New York City FC an expected 1.4 goals and Toronto FC an expected 0.9 goals. New York City FC have a 48% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Toronto FC at 24%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 62%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:0 14.7%
1:1 12.7%
0:0 10.8%
2:0 10%
0:1 9.3%
2:1 8.6%
1:2 5.5%
3:0 4.5%
0:2 4%
3:1 3.9%
2:2 3.7%
3:2 1.7%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick New York City FC Win
Probability 48%
Predicted Odds 2.08
Market Odds 2.22

Team Comparison

New York City FC Toronto FC
5 League Position 12
56 Points 32
50% Win % 18%
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29

Venue Form

New York City FC at Home
W0 D1 L2 (3 games)
0% win rate

Recent Form

New York City FC
L D L