1
30%
Home Win
3.29
X
27%
Draw
3.66
2
42%
Away Win
2.36
xG Home
1.08
xG Away
1.33
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS
49%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives New York City FC an expected 1.1 goals and Philadelphia Union an expected 1.3 goals. New York City FC have a 30% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Philadelphia Union at 42%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 57%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.9%
0:1
11.9%
1:0
9.7%
0:0
9%
1:2
8.6%
0:2
7.9%
2:1
7%
2:0
5.2%
2:2
4.6%
1:3
3.8%
0:3
3.5%
3:1
2.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Philadelphia Union Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 42% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.38 |
| Market Odds | 2.53 |
Team Comparison
| New York City FC | Philadelphia Union | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 1 |
| 56 | Points | 66 |
| 50% | Win % | 59% |
| 1.47 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.68 |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.03 |
Venue Form
New York City FC at Home
W0
D1
L2
(3 games)
Philadelphia Union Away
W1
D1
L2
(4 games)
Recent Form
New York City FC
L
D
L
Philadelphia Union
L
L
D
W
