1
45%
Home Win
2.23
X
26%
Draw
3.83
2
29%
Away Win
3.43
xG Home
1.45
xG Away
1.12
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS
52%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives New York City FC an expected 1.5 goals and New York Red Bulls an expected 1.1 goals. New York City FC have a 45% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and New York Red Bulls at 29%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 52%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.4%
1:0
11.1%
2:1
9%
0:1
8.5%
2:0
8.1%
0:0
7.6%
1:2
7%
2:2
5.1%
0:2
4.8%
3:1
4.4%
3:0
3.9%
1:3
2.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | New York City FC Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| New York City FC | New York Red Bulls | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 10 |
| 56 | Points | 43 |
| 50% | Win % | 35% |
| 1.47 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.41 |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.38 |
Venue Form
New York City FC at Home
W0
D1
L3
(4 games)
New York Red Bulls Away
W1
D1
L3
(5 games)
Recent Form
New York City FC
L
L
D
L
New York Red Bulls
L
D
W
L
L