1
3%
Home Win
39.84
X
9%
Draw
11.53
2
88%
Away Win
1.13
xG Home
0.36
xG Away
2.95
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
BTTS
29%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Napoli an expected 0.4 goals and Arsenal an expected 3.0 goals. Napoli have a 3% win probability, draw stands at 9%, and Arsenal at 88%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–2. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 64%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:2
15.9%
0:3
15.6%
0:4
11.5%
0:1
10.8%
1:2
5.7%
1:3
5.6%
1:4
4.1%
1:1
3.9%
0:0
3.6%
1:0
1.3%
2:2
1%
2:3
1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Arsenal Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 88% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.14 |
| Market Odds | 1.21 |
Team Comparison
| Napoli | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | League Position | 1 |
| 8 | Points | 24 |
| 25% | Win % | 100% |
| 1.13 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.88 |
| 1.88 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.5 |
Venue Form
Arsenal Away
W0
D2
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Arsenal
D
D
