Morocco vs Mali Prediction

Live Match Centre & Lineups ›
1 – 0
Most Likely Score
Fri, 26 Dec 2025 · Africa Cup of Nations
1 59%
Home Win 1.68
X 31%
Draw 3.2
2 9%
Away Win 10.76
xG Home 1.19
xG Away 0.30
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
BTTS 18%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Morocco an expected 1.2 goals and Mali an expected 0.3 goals. Morocco have a 59% win probability, draw stands at 31%, and Mali at 9%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 81%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:0 26.8%
0:0 22.5%
2:0 16%
1:1 8%
0:1 6.7%
3:0 6.3%
2:1 4.8%
3:1 1.9%
4:0 1.9%
1:2 1.2%
0:2 1%
2:2 0.7%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Morocco Win
Probability 50%
Predicted Odds 2
Market Odds 2.13

Team Comparison

Morocco Mali
1 League Position 2
7 Points 3
67% Win % 0%
2 Avg Goals Scored 0.67
0.33 Avg Goals Conceded 0.67

Head to Head

07 Feb 2021 African Nations Championship
Mali 0 : 2 Morocco
W
05 Sep 2017 World Cup - Qualification Africa
Mali 0 : 0 Morocco
D
01 Sep 2017 World Cup - Qualification Africa
Morocco 6 : 0 Mali
W