Mirassol vs Fluminense Prediction

Mirassol Mirassol
1 – 0
Most Likely Score
Sat, 23 May 2026 · Serie A
Fluminense Fluminense
1 48%
Home Win 2.09
X 26%
Draw 3.78
2 26%
Away Win 3.89
xG Home 1.46
xG Away 0.99
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
BTTS 48%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Mirassol an expected 1.5 goals and Fluminense an expected 1.0 goals. Mirassol have a 48% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Fluminense at 26%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 56%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:0 12.6%
1:1 12.5%
2:0 9.2%
2:1 9.1%
0:0 8.7%
0:1 8.6%
1:2 6.2%
2:2 4.5%
3:0 4.5%
3:1 4.4%
0:2 4.2%
3:2 2.2%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Fluminense Win
Probability 45%
Predicted Odds 2.22
Market Odds 2.36

Team Comparison

Mirassol Fluminense
4 League Position 5
67 Points 64
47% Win % 50%
1.66 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
1.03 Avg Goals Conceded 1.03

Venue Form

Mirassol at Home
W1 D2 L0 (3 games)
33% win rate
Fluminense Away
W1 D0 L1 (2 games)
50% win rate

Recent Form

Mirassol
D W D
Fluminense
L W

Head to Head

06 Nov 2025 Serie A
Fluminense 1 : 0 Mirassol
L
09 Oct 2025 Serie A
Mirassol 2 : 1 Fluminense
L