Mexico vs South Korea Prediction

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1 – 0
Most Likely Score
Fri, 19 Jun 2026 · World Cup
1 67%
Home Win 1.5
X 26%
Draw 3.87
2 7%
Away Win 13.42
xG Home 1.45
xG Away 0.30
Over 2.5 Goals 26%
BTTS 20%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Mexico an expected 1.4 goals and South Korea an expected 0.3 goals. Mexico have a 67% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and South Korea at 7%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 74%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:0 25.2%
2:0 18.2%
0:0 17.4%
3:0 8.8%
1:1 7.6%
2:1 5.5%
0:1 5.2%
4:0 3.2%
3:1 2.6%
1:2 1.1%
4:1 1%
2:2 0.8%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Mexico Win
Probability 45%
Predicted Odds 2.22
Market Odds 2.36

Team Comparison

Mexico South Korea
1 League Position 3
9 Points 3
100% Win % 33%
2 Avg Goals Scored 0.67
0 Avg Goals Conceded 1

Venue Form

Mexico at Home
W1 D0 L0 (1 games)
100% win rate

Recent Form

Mexico
W

Head to Head

10 Sep 2025 Friendlies
Mexico 2 : 2 South Korea
D
14 Nov 2020 Friendlies
Mexico 3 : 2 South Korea
W
23 Jun 2018 World Cup
South Korea 1 : 2 Mexico
W