1
20%
Home Win
4.93
X
56%
Draw
1.79
2
24%
Away Win
4.21
xG Home
0.33
xG Away
0.37
Over 2.5 Goals
3%
BTTS
9%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Mexico an expected 0.3 goals and Ecuador an expected 0.4 goals. Mexico have a 20% win probability, draw stands at 56%, and Ecuador at 24%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 97%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:0
49.7%
0:1
18.5%
1:0
16.2%
1:1
6%
0:2
3.5%
2:0
2.6%
1:2
1.1%
2:1
1%
0:3
0.4%
3:0
0.3%
2:2
0.2%
1:3
0.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Ecuador Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Mexico | Ecuador | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 2 |
| 4 | Points | 4 |
| 33% | Win % | 33% |
| 0.33 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.33 |
| 0.33 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1 |
Head to Head
Mexico
0 : 0
Ecuador
D
Mexico
2 : 3
Ecuador
L
Mexico
3 : 2
Ecuador
W