1
74%
Home Win
1.35
X
14%
Draw
7.11
2
12%
Away Win
8.58
xG Home
2.99
xG Away
1.16
Over 2.5 Goals
78%
BTTS
65%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Liverpool an expected 3.0 goals and Atlético Madrid an expected 1.2 goals. Liverpool have a 74% win probability, draw stands at 14%, and Atlético Madrid at 12%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 78%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:1
8.2%
3:1
8.1%
2:0
7%
3:0
7%
4:1
6.1%
1:1
5.5%
4:0
5.2%
2:2
4.7%
3:2
4.7%
1:0
4.7%
4:2
3.5%
1:2
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Liverpool Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 74% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.35 |
| Market Odds | 1.44 |
Team Comparison
| Liverpool | Atlético Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 14 |
| 18 | Points | 13 |
| 75% | Win % | 50% |
| 2.5 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.13 |
| 1 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.88 |
