Exmouth vs Thame United Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Exmouth an expected 1.4 goals and Thame United an expected 1.0 goals. Exmouth have a 45% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Thame United at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1 (~13% probability). However, when all Exmouth Win scorelines are combined, that outcome reaches 45% — making it the strongest bet. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 56%.