1
17%
Home Win
5.75
X
28%
Draw
3.59
2
55%
Away Win
1.83
xG Home
0.64
xG Away
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals
33%
BTTS
35%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Ecuador an expected 0.6 goals and Germany an expected 1.4 goals. Ecuador have a 17% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Germany at 55%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 67%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
18.3%
0:0
13.3%
0:2
12.6%
1:1
11.7%
1:0
8.5%
1:2
8.1%
0:3
5.8%
2:1
3.8%
1:3
3.7%
2:0
2.7%
2:2
2.6%
0:4
2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Germany Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Ecuador | Germany | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 1 |
| 4 | Points | 6 |
| 33% | Win % | 67% |
| 0.67 | Avg Goals Scored | 3.33 |
| 0.67 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.33 |