Brazil vs Japan Prediction

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1 – 0
Most Likely Score
Mon, 29 Jun 2026 · World Cup
1 67%
Home Win 1.49
X 23%
Draw 4.39
2 10%
Away Win 9.91
xG Home 1.69
xG Away 0.48
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
BTTS 31%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Brazil an expected 1.7 goals and Japan an expected 0.5 goals. Brazil have a 67% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Japan at 10%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 63%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:0 19.3%
2:0 16.3%
0:0 11.4%
1:1 9.3%
3:0 9.1%
2:1 7.8%
0:1 5.5%
3:1 4.4%
4:0 3.9%
1:2 2.2%
2:2 1.9%
4:1 1.9%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Brazil Win
Probability 45%
Predicted Odds 2.22
Market Odds 2.36

Team Comparison

Brazil Japan
1 League Position 2
7 Points 5
67% Win % 33%
2.33 Avg Goals Scored 2.33
0.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1

Head to Head

14 Oct 2025 Friendlies
Japan 3 : 2 Brazil
L
06 Jun 2022 Friendlies
Japan 0 : 1 Brazil
W
10 Nov 2017 Friendlies
Japan 1 : 3 Brazil
W