1
77%
Home Win
1.3
X
15%
Draw
6.61
2
8%
Away Win
13.11
xG Home
2.43
xG Away
0.62
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS
42%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Borussia Dortmund an expected 2.4 goals and Werder Bremen an expected 0.6 goals. Borussia Dortmund have a 77% win probability, draw stands at 15%, and Werder Bremen at 8%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
14%
1:0
11.5%
3:0
11.3%
2:1
8.7%
1:1
7.2%
3:1
7%
4:0
6.8%
0:0
4.7%
4:1
4.3%
0:1
3%
2:2
2.7%
1:2
2.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Borussia Dortmund Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 77% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.3 |
| Market Odds | 1.38 |
Team Comparison
| Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 15 |
| 73 | Points | 32 |
| 65% | Win % | 24% |
| 2.06 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.09 |
| 1 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.76 |
Venue Form
Borussia Dortmund at Home
W3
D0
L0
(3 games)
Werder Bremen Away
W0
D2
L2
(4 games)
Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund
W
W
W
Werder Bremen
D
L
D
L