1
86%
Home Win
1.16
X
9%
Draw
11.38
2
4%
Away Win
22.52
xG Home
3.41
xG Away
0.73
Over 2.5 Goals
77%
BTTS
50%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Borussia Dortmund an expected 3.4 goals and Villarreal an expected 0.7 goals. Borussia Dortmund have a 86% win probability, draw stands at 9%, and Villarreal at 4%. The most likely exact scoreline is 3–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 77%.
Correct Score Predictions
3:0
10.5%
2:0
9.3%
4:0
9%
3:1
7.7%
2:1
6.7%
4:1
6.5%
1:0
5.4%
1:1
4%
3:2
2.8%
2:2
2.5%
4:2
2.4%
0:0
1.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Borussia Dortmund Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 86% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.16 |
| Market Odds | 1.24 |
Team Comparison
| Borussia Dortmund | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | League Position | 35 |
| 11 | Points | 1 |
| 38% | Win % | 0% |
| 2.38 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.63 |
| 2.13 | Avg Goals Conceded | 2.25 |
