1
71%
Home Win
1.41
X
23%
Draw
4.44
2
6%
Away Win
15.75
xG Home
1.63
xG Away
0.30
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
BTTS
21%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Argentina an expected 1.6 goals and Ecuador an expected 0.3 goals. Argentina have a 71% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Ecuador at 6%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 70%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
23.7%
2:0
19.3%
0:0
14.5%
3:0
10.5%
1:1
7.1%
2:1
5.8%
0:1
4.4%
4:0
4.3%
3:1
3.1%
4:1
1.3%
1:2
1.1%
2:2
0.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Argentina Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Argentina | Ecuador | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 2 |
| 9 | Points | 4 |
| 100% | Win % | 33% |
| 1.67 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.33 |
| 0 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1 |
Head to Head
Argentina
1 : 0
Ecuador
W
Argentina
1 : 0
Ecuador
W
Ecuador
1 : 1
Argentina
D