Albania vs San Marino Prediction

1 – 0
Most Likely Score
Tue, 06 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

xG Home 1.26
xG Away 0.93
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
BTTS 43%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Albania an expected 1.3 goals and San Marino an expected 0.9 goals. Albania have a 44% win probability, draw stands at 29%, and San Marino at 27%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 62%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:0 14.1%
1:1 13.1%
0:0 11.2%
0:1 10.4%
2:0 8.9%
2:1 8.3%
1:2 6.1%
0:2 4.9%
2:2 3.9%
3:0 3.7%
3:1 3.5%
1:3 1.9%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Albania Win
Probability 50%
Predicted Odds 2
Market Odds 2.13

Head to Head

08 Sep 2021 World Cup - Qualification Europe
Albania 5 : 0 San Marino
W
31 Mar 2021 World Cup - Qualification Europe
San Marino 0 : 2 Albania
W